The performance lead keeps him healthy. The medical lead reads the risk and runs the return.
It reads injury history by type and runs the return-to-play, changing the risk side of the bet and never the grade.
Read the history and the type, flag the bet, not the grade.
A composite prospect on the board. His grade is a fact from Player Intelligence. The medical read does not touch it. It reads his history and the type of what he has suffered, and it prices the risk beside the rating.
A multisport background is a small durability positive, and the running-back case is the extreme the read exists for: the highest time-missed of any position, a minority chance of a fully healthy season, and a workload sensitivity that compounds the position's early cliff. Diagnose the history, weight it by type, and price the availability, not the ability.
Illustrative on the real medical-risk layer (the injury history and type weighting, the workload sensitivity, the attrition haircut and wider bands, the multisport positive, the running-back extreme). Composite prospect, demonstration figures.
A player comes back. The question is who comes back.
A player comes back. The load-bearing question the medical read answers is not the timeline but the quality of the return, which is why severe structural injuries are weighted heaviest: their returns are the least certain.
The return quality feeds two layers: a diminished return marks down the development trajectory (the explosive traits fade first, often the ones a structural injury takes), a re-injury risk widens the availability band, and neither touches the current grade. A staff that returns players to form is doing the highest-leverage work. The timeline says when he is back. The medical read says who is back.
Illustrative on the real return-to-play layer (the return-quality spectrum, the elevated first-season re-injury risk, the trajectory markdown versus the availability-band widening, neither touching the grade). Composite player, demonstration figures.
Rate the staff on the returns it wins, leave the number alone.
Availability and return are joint outputs, so the engine splits the credit in the open and rates the medical staff on a residual: whether its roster returns players to form and avoids re-injury above the baseline its profile predicts, across a sample.
A medical staff that returns players to form and avoids re-injury across teams and years is a real edge and a source of surplus, confidence-gated and separated from the performance staff and the player. It feeds the institutional term and the availability-adjusted value, and never becomes a grade input. Win the returns, price the risk, and let the grade stand.
Illustrative on the real credit and governance mechanics (the medical residual against baseline, the transparent credit split, the never-touches-the-grade rule, the portable-actor return-travels read, the institutional term). Composite medical lead and rosters, demonstration figures.
A red flag and a clean bill can sit on the same rating and be completely different wagers.
Read the risk, run the return.
Medical Intelligence reads a player's injury history and type into a risk on the bet, runs the return-to-play on whether he comes back to form, rates the staff on the returns it wins, and moves the risk and the availability, never the grade.